What Are the Chances?

The Albion Analysis supercomputer predicts the end of season table...

Four games to go, three points from the play-offs. Can Albion close the gap on Coventry? Should we expect them to?

Friday brings the biggest game of the season for Albion, a must-win game that has the potential to mould the Baggies’ season.

Beat Coventry and Albion move into the playoff spots, with the remaining three fixtures coming up against relegation battlers. But does victory against Coventry even make Albion favourites for the playoffs?

When running the numbers on how the table will look at the end of the season, there’s not an awful lot of difference to how the table looks now. The top four remain the same, Coventry move above Bristol City, Boro move above Albion, but no meaningful changes in the sense of who goes up automatically and which sides make the playoffs.

As you can see above, my model expects Albion to miss out on the playoff spots by four points, so the gap to Bristol City remains as it is, but Coventry increase their lead on Albion by a point.

Part of that is down to the model giving Albion just a 25% chance of victory tomorrow, whereas Coventry have a 52% chance of taking 3 points.

There’s always hope but it looks unlikely that Albion will get the job done. Albion’s destiny is still in their own hands though, win every game and a spot in the playoffs is theirs. So what are the chances of that happening?