Opposition Analysis: Watford (a)

Pete identifies areas of strength and weakness of Albion's next opponents...

Albion will be heading south tomorrow morning to take on The Hornets. A side that are overperforming our expectations. Prior to a ball being kicked this season, I predicted a 15^th placed finish for Tom Cleverly’s men, whilst Chris predicted them to finish in the bottom three.

Watford started this weekend in 8^th spot, just one point shy of Albion. However, the underlying numbers suggest that Watford may be fortunate to be as high in the table as they are.

Underlying Numbers

On the face of things, Watford look like an exciting side to watch. They rank 6^th for goals in games that they are involved in and have had the joint least number of draws in the division. Very different to Albion. Only Burnley fans have seen fewer goals than Albion fans.

It’s generally Watford’s travelling fans that get the thrilling games though. They’ve scored 13 at Vicarage Road (ranking them 17^th for home goals) and have only conceded 4 (the third best home defensive record).

Despite a very solid defensive record at home, the underlying numbers suggest that Watford are much weaker defensively than that record tells us. They’ve the third worst expected goals conceded (xGA) in the league. Despite conceding only 4 goals at home, their xGA is 12.7, so they have been nearly 9 goals better off than the chances that they’ve given up.

It’s been a mixture of poor finishing and decent goalkeeping that has kept the goals out for Watford. But Albion should take encouragement from Watford’s defensive numbers.

Going forward, Watford are a lot stronger and have the 6^th best xG in the division. They’re a side that see chances at both ends of the pitch and that’s what make them interesting to watch. It’s also something that Corberan probably won’t enjoy partaking in.

My model doesn’t see Watford as a particularly tricky opponent. However, with home advantage factored in, it makes Watford the favourite giving them a 41% chance of victory to Albion’s 34%.

Defensive

Watford are vulnerable at the back. Not only are they vulnerable, but they seem to be very passive as well. They’ve the third least high turnovers in the division, aren’t aggressive without the ball and hold a deep defensive line – the second deepest in the division.

These factors create a situation where Watford can’t impose themselves on games and are more reliant on dribbling through teams and countering than they are creating and sustaining pressure. Their field tilt of 47% tells that story.

It’s a game where Albion are likely to see a lot of the ball and have the chance to dominate the game in their offensive third. However, it will be a case of breaking down a low block. The combination and rotations of Styles, Mowatt, Johnston and Grant (hopefully) down the left will likely be key to this. Albion will have to be fluid in their attacking movements to disorganise the Watford defence, but the numbers suggest this isn’t always too difficult.